- Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 1.38% for the week ending Friday 2/1, as prices rose $0.026 per gallon.
- On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in March closed at $55.26 per barrel on Friday, 2/1, up 2.31% for the day, and up 2.92% for the week.
- On Monday February 4th 2019 oil prices hit a YTD high of $64/barrel before falling sharply based on concerns of global economic uncertainty, little progress in the U.S. and China trade agreement, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Friday’s report on the number of active US oil and gas rigs fell by a combined total of 29 rigs. OPEC’s crude oil production in Jan ’19 was down by 890,000 bpd vs. Dec ’18, but despite the lower production numbers, oil cannot seem to find any positive footing to hold a bullish run. With many questions still looming, the volatility in the market is expected to remain. WTI crude ended 2018 down 25% and Brent crude ended down 20%.
- Prompt-month natural gas futures decreased $0.258 for the week ending Friday, 2/1, to settle at $2.814/Dth. February NYMEX settled at $2.95 / Dth last week.
- Overall supply increased 0.4 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand increased by 8.3 Bcf.
- Natural gas exports in October 2018 were 305,603 million cubic feet, compared with 281,359 million cubic feet in October 2017. This is an 8.62% increase.
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 173 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 150 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 126 Bcf during the same week.
- Working gas stocks total 2,197 Bcf, coming in 328 Bcf less than the five-year average and 14 Bcf lower than last year at this time.
- Average peak prices in NYC increased last week, moving up $42.45 to $92.30 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $175.47 between 5-6 PM last Thursday, 1/31, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G also increased, rising $34.22 to average $65.59 per MWh, and topping out at $167.64 on Thursday, 1/31, between 7-8 AM.
- Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 decreased $1.75 per MWh for NYC and decreased $0.78 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC decreased $1.47 per MWh, and PSEG prices decreased $1.03 per MWh.
- Temperatures averaged 7.79°F below historical figures this past week (ending 2/1), and came in 0.21°F above forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 51°F with lows averaging 34°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 8.50°F warmer than seasonal averages, and 17.14°F above last week’s average.
- Temperatures are expected to dramatically rise after last week’s bone chilling temperatures with average highs projecting to be a full 20 degrees warmer than last week. Monday, Tuesday, and Friday may all see highs in the 60s, which is unseasonably warm for this time of year. Short term forecasts still show below-average temperatures in the majority of the country with the East Coast experiencing above-average temperatures. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average to average temperatures on the West Coast and Northwest with below-average temperatures in much of the eastern U.S.