Heating Oil

• Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 1.93% for the week ending Friday, 1/18, as prices rose $0.0363 per gallon.
• On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in February closed at $53.80 per barrel on Friday, 1/18, up 3.01% for the day, and up 4.28% for the week.
• Crude oil rose last week but fell on Tuesday, trading near $53 a barrel. Prices saw their third straight weekly increase as investors remained optimistic that the U.S and China would remedy their economic disputes. The Chinese Vice Premier, Liu He, is scheduled to visit Washington D.C. on January 30th in order to move forward with these trade talks. The domestic oil rig count also experienced its largest weekly decline in almost three years last week as it fell from 873 to 852, indicating a significant decrease in production. Going against prices were concerns that a global economic slowdown would impact demand for oil, as the International Monetary Fund reduced its 2019 global growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.7%. Investors are particularly focused on China’s economic data, as many analysts believe the country has reach peak energy growth. The largest economy in Asia reported its lowest annual economic growth in nearly 30 years on Monday.

 

Natural Gas

• Prompt-month natural gas futures increased $0.383 for the week ending Friday, 1/18, to settle at $3.482/Dth.
• Overall supply increased 1.0 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand increased by 15.9 Bcf.
• Natural gas exports in October 2018 were 305,603 million cubic feet, compared with 281,359 million cubic feet in October 2017. This is an 8.62% increase.
• Net withdrawals from storage totaled 81 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 218 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 208 Bcf during the same week.
• Working gas stocks total 2,533 Bcf, coming in 327 Bcf less than the five-year average and 77 Bcf less than last year at this time.

 

Electricity

• Average peak prices in NYC increased last week, moving up $6.20 to $38.44 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $75.62 between 5-6 PM last Friday, 1/11, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G also increased, rising $6.23 to average $36.27 per MWh, and topping out at $51.04 on Thursday, 1/17, between 7-8 AM.
• Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 increased $2.06 per MWh for NYC and increased $1.28 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC increased $1.43 per MWh, and PSEG prices increased $0.36 per MWh.

 

Weather

Last Week:

This Week:

• Temperatures averaged 1.29°F below historical figures this past week (ending 1/19), and came in 0.86°F below forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 35°F with lows averaging 22°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 4.00°F cooler than seasonal averages, and 2.64°F below last week’s average.
• Temperatures will stay below seasonal averages this week and come in a bit colder than last week. After a frigid Monday, temperatures will rise slightly with rain likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Short term forecasts show below average temperatures in the majority of the country, with some average and above average temperatures on the West Coast. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average to average temperatures on the West Coast and Northwest with below-average temperatures in much of the eastern U.S.