- Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 6.25% for the week ending Friday, 1/11, as prices rose $0.1105 per gallon.
- On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in February closed at $51.59 per barrel on Friday, 1/11, down 1.32% for the day, and up 7.57% for the week.
- Crude oil rose sharply last week but fell on Monday, trading near $50 a barrel. WTI saw its largest weekly gain since June as investors reacted to production cuts in Saudi Arabia and trade talks between the U.S. and China. Saudi Arabia’s exports are already down 800,000 barrels per day from November levels and are expected to fall another 100,000 bpd in February. The domestic oil rig count also decreased by 4 to 873 last week, indicating decreasing production in the U.S. Some analysts are fearful that prices above $50 a barrel could incentivize increased production from U.S. shale oil drillers and limit the effects of the Saudi cuts. Domestic production rose by more than 2 million bpd in 2018 to a record 11.7 million bpd, and energy consultancy JBC Energy indicated it was possible that output could be well above 12 million bpd this month. Analysts also note mounting evidence that China’s growth in 2018 and 2019 will be the lowest in decades, which would have a significant negative impact on global oil demand.
- Prompt-month natural gas futures increased $0.055 for the week ending Friday, 1/11, to settle at $3.099/Dth.
- Overall supply increased 0.7 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand decreased, falling by 12.0 Bcf.
- Natural gas exports in October 2018 were 305,603 million cubic feet, compared with 281,359 million cubic feet in October 2017. This is an 8.62% increase.
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 91 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 187 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 337 Bcf during the same week.
- Working gas stocks total 2,614 Bcf, coming in 464 Bcf less than the five-year average and 204 Bcf less than last year at this time.
- Average peak prices in NYC increased last week, moving up $6.20 to $38.44 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $75.62 between 5-6 PM last Friday, 1/11, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G also increased, rising $4.40 to average $30.04 per MWh, and topping out at $49.65 on Friday, 1/11, between 7-8 AM.
- Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 increased $0.82 per MWh for NYC and increased $0.73 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC increased $1.29 per MWh, and PSEG prices increased $0.58 per MWh.
- Temperatures averaged 0.64°F above historical figures this past week (ending 1/12), and came in even with forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 37°F with lows averaging 27°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 0.43°F cooler than seasonal averages, and 1.14°F below last week’s average.
- Temperatures will remain similar to last week’s averages and come in slightly below seasonal norms. Weather will be mostly dry, though some snow is possible going into the weekend. Short term forecasts show average temperatures in the majority of the country, with some above average temperatures in the Northwest. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average to average temperatures on the West Coast and Northwest with below-average temperatures in much of the eastern U.S.