- Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 6.55% for the week ending Friday, 1/4, as prices rose $0.1088 per gallon.
- On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in February closed at $47.96 per barrel on Friday, 1/4, up 2.26% for the day, and up 5.80% for the week.
- Crude oil climbed last week and continued to rise through Monday, trading above $48 a barrel. Investors were cautiously optimistic as production cuts began taking effect from OPEC and Russia. Saudi Arabia has dropped their exports to 7.1 million barrels per day, down 800,000 bpd from November levels. In addition, the United States and China entered into talks to put a halt to their trade war, further boosting the market. Working against prices was news that Libya would be reentering the market in a significant way, as they aim to more than double their oil production to 2.1 million bpd by 2021. The domestic oil rig count decreased by 8 to 877 last week, indicating decreasing domestic production. A drop in WTI inventory estimates at the Cushing storage hub was also noted by investors, as inventories fell by 565,225 barrels between January 1st and January 4th.
- Prompt-month natural gas futures decreased $0.259 for the week ending Friday, 1/4, to settle at $3.044/Dth.
- Overall supply decreased 0.6 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand also decreased, falling by 16.4 Bcf.
- Natural gas exports in October 2018 were 305,603 million cubic feet, compared with 281,359 million cubic feet in October 2017. This is a 8.62% increase.
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 141 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 144 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 166 Bcf during the same week.
- Net withdrawals from storage were higher than expectations with a median forecast of 137 Bcf injected. Working gas stocks total 2,773 Bcf, coming in 720 Bcf less than the five-year average and 697 Bcf less than last year at this time.
- Average peak prices in NYC decreased last week, moving down $4.93 to $36.07 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $56.26 between 5-6 PM last Wednesday, 12/26, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G also decreased, falling $11.40 to average $28.23 per MWh, and topping out at $39.05 on Wednesday, 12/26, between 5-6 PM.
- Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 decreased $1.21 per MWh for NYC and decreased $1.30 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC decreased $0.99 per MWh, and PSEG prices decreased $0.33 per MWh.
- Temperatures averaged 8.14°F above historical figures this past week (ending 1/5), and came in 0.14°F below forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 39°F with lows averaging 29°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 1.86°F warmer than seasonal averages, and 7.00°F below last week’s average.
- Temperatures will drop this week to come in closer to seasonal averages. Some rain is expected on Tuesday morning, but the rest of the week should remain relatively dry. Short term forecasts show above-average temperatures in the majority of the country, with some below average temperatures in the Southwest. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average to average temperatures on the West Coast and Northwest with below-average temperatures in much of the eastern U.S.