- Prompt-month heating oil futures decreased 6.10% for the week ending Friday, 12/21, as prices fell $0.1126 per gallon.
- On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in January closed at $45.59 per barrel on Friday, 12/21, down 1.42% for the day, and down 11.42% for the week.
- Crude oil prices fell another 11% last week, the largest weekly drop in the past 3 years, and is trading below $45 a barrel today. Prices have dropped over 40% since hitting recent highs in October. Investors are bracing for a recession in 2019 as stock market and economic data are pointing to a global slowdown in the near future. The domestic oil rig count rose by 10 to 883 last week, which also contributed to decreased prices. Earlier this month, OPEC and Russia pledged to remove about 1.2 million barrels of excess supply offline beginning in January, but it has had little impact on supporting prices.
- Prompt-month natural gas futures decreased $0.011 for the week ending Friday, 12/21, to settle at $3.816/Dth.
- Overall supply decreased 0.6 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand also decreased, falling by 16.4 Bcf.
- Natural gas exports in September 2018 were 301,869 million cubic feet, compared with 250,280 million cubic feet in September 2017. This is a 20.61% increase.
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 141 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net withdrawals of 144 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 166 Bcf during the same week.
- Net withdrawals from storage were higher than expectations with a median forecast of 137 Bcf injected. Working gas stocks total 2,773 Bcf, coming in 720 Bcf less than the five-year average and 697 Bcf less than last year at this time.
- Average peak prices in NYC decreased last week, moving down $5.43 to $48.86 per MWh. Peak prices hit a high of $86.02 between 5-6 PM last Tuesday, 12/18, in NYC; Average peak prices in PSE&G also decreased, falling $4.00 to average $39.63 per MWh, and topping out at $54.74 on Tuesday, 12/18, between 5-6 PM.
- Around-the-clock prices for the balance of 2019 decreased $0.53 per MWh for NYC and decreased $0.08 per MWh in PSE&G. Calendar 2020 prices in NYC decreased $0.28 per MWh, and PSEG prices decreased $0.10 per MWh.
- Temperatures averaged 5.43°F above historical figures this past week (ending 12/22), and came in 0.36°F above forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 48°F with lows averaging 36°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 6.21°F warmer than seasonal averages, and 1.14°F below last week’s average.
- Temperatures will be slightly cooler this week, but will still feel unseasonably warm most of the week with highs reaching 61 on Friday. Dry and sunny weather is expected for the majority of the week with some rain possible on Friday. Short term forecasts show above-average temperatures for most of the Southeast along parts of the Midwest, with some below average temperatures in the Rockies. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average to average temperatures in the western half of the U.S. with below-average temperatures in the East.